According to a global consultancy company, McKinsey & Co, Polish economy can grow as much as up to 850 billion by 2025. In a report published in February, analysts from McKinsey outlined two possible scenarios for Poland: normal and accelerated growth.
Consultancy UK says: “In a recently released report from McKinsey & Company, titled ‘Poland 2025: Europe’s new growth engine’, the state of the Polish commercial economy is mapped out. The consultancy considers two scenarios: business as usual or accelerated development. The business as usual model sees little change in terms of development from its current levels of growth, with a moderate rate of 2.6% annually. In this scenario the negative drag on the economy from demographic shifts in the labour supply, and limited technology and efficiency growth, are not compensated for. If the Polish economy takes a different turn however, the country has the possibility of catching up to 85% of the projected EU-15 average (PPP). It would see its growth rate average above 4%, and see it attain the level of economic prosperity of Spain, Slovenia, or even Italy.”
In the report, McKinsey & Co say: “Alternatively, Poland could seek to accelerate development, to become the fastest-growing European Union economy for the next decade. By this second, aspirational scenario, Poland would achieve even greater prosperity, with GDP growth above 4 percent annually between 2015 and 2025. The advance would put Polish per capita GDP (PPP) in 2025 at 85 percent of the projected EU-15 average (PPP). Such growth would allow Poland to attain levels not only of Portugal and Cyprus, but also of Spain, Slovenia, or even Italy. Poland would become a globally competitive advanced economy and a significant exporter of goods and services. ”
As the report points out, “for Poland to attain status as one of the world’s most advanced economies, it will have to grow at a significantly faster rate. Since Poland is already a developed economy, such growth will only be achieved through a major multisector transformation program.”
The whole report is available to download from McKinsey & Co. On almost 100 pages, the analysts present alternative scenarios for Polish growth. It’s definitely a recommended read! Some of the recommended development paths include creating a pharmaceutical hub in Poland, as well as attempting to save the Polish mining sector.